Righteo, so who will win the Rugby World Cup this year?
Yes, ladies and gentlemen we are there. In a little over a week, France and New Zealand kick off one of the most hotly anticipated tournaments since the inception of the Rugby World Cup in 1987.
I will reserve this page for a tournament preview of all the pools and the team’s strengths next week. For now, I’d like to look at the contenders and possible outsiders for South Africa’s William Webb Ellis trophy.
Warm-up matches all done and dusted.
— Springboks (@Springboks) August 30, 2023
Up next = Rugby World Cup 2023 🏆![CDATA[]]>🇿![CDATA[]]>🇦#StrongerTogether #Springboks pic.twitter.com/nmU6i2fd4P
Only four teams have won the Rugby World Cup, with South Africa (1995, 2007 and 2019) and New Zealand (1987, 2011 and 2015) both bagging Bill three times, Australia twice in 1991 and 1999 and England once in 2003.
Two of those teams (England, who lost to Fiji last weekend, and Australia who haven’t won a game this year) have not done well this year and will definitely not be counted among the favourites.
Glory days 🏆![CDATA[]]>🏆
— Rugby World Cup (@rugbyworldcup) August 10, 2023
The Wallabies class of 2023 will be looking to emulate the heroes of 1991 and 1999#RWC2023 pic.twitter.com/lhF4ELi0g6
The draw makes it tricky, though, and when you look at it, you might begin to think that despite not winning a single match this year, Eddie Jones might not be as crazy as people like to think with his suggestion that Australia could win the tournament.
One thing is clear - at least two giants will fall before we reach the final four. Let’s break it down a bit.
Entering the tournament, Six Nations winners and the world’s top side Ireland are favourites alongside hosts France, who have been on an upward trajectory over the last year or so.
World champions South Africa, with their 35-7 record demolition of the All Blacks last week, moved up to second on the world rankings and definitely had other teams sit up and take notice. The All Blacks make up the quartet of teams who would be considered favourites.
Here is the problem though: all of these teams are on a collision course in the quarterfinals, meaning at least two of them will not make the final four.
Congratulations @Springboks. Thanks for the game. Not our night.#RSAvNZL #AllBlacks pic.twitter.com/IR7mE4m5bd
— All Blacks (@AllBlacks) August 25, 2023
New Zealand and France are in Pool A, with South Africa, Ireland and outsiders Scotland in Pool B.
The two qualifiers of each pool with square off against each other in the quarters, meaning if they qualify South Africa will face either France or New Zealand in the quarters, with the other team most likely playing Ireland as the other quarterfinalists.
That means if they make it out of their pool, two of the big four (SA, NZ, France and Ireland) will fall before the semis.
At the other end of the draw, Jones’s Wallabies and England have a decent path to the semis.
Australia are grouped with an out-of-form Wales, Fiji (who could be the surprise package this year), Georgia and Portugal in Pool C, with England in Pool D alongside Japan, Argentina, Samoa and Chile.
England could find it difficult to get out of that group, while Australia will have time to build up some steam ahead of facing one of the Pool D teams in the quarters.
So when it comes to the semis, anything can happen and that’s why I don’t think one should discount Australia just yet.
As for the “big four”, they will have to play out of their skins even to reach the semis. If you could remember what happened to England in 2019, there could be a warning in that.
They basically played their final in the semis to beat NZ and capitulated in the final against South Africa.
Nienaber's experienced squad ready to defend the Webb Ellis Cup in France 🏆#RWC2023 | @Springboks pic.twitter.com/2qenfYoTiS
— Rugby World Cup (@rugbyworldcup) August 9, 2023
That could happen again and that could open the door for a surprise team like Fiji, Australia or even England to shock the rugby world.
As for the Springboks, pace yourselves and there’s no reason why you can’t win it again. It won’t be easy, though. It will be a rough ride.