So we’ve reached that stage of the Rugby World Cup where the doppies pak their tassies and the top eight are out on a quarterfinal date.
And things couldn’t be spicier heading into the final round of round-robin fixtures this weekend.
Is Finn Russell the key to Scotland beating Ireland this weekend? Johnnie Beattie and Sam Larner think so ⬇️
— Rugby World Cup (@rugbyworldcup) October 5, 2023
🔗 Watch the full episode on RugbyPass TV: https://t.co/Mh5kRALG4O #RWC2023 pic.twitter.com/Q5rkVzEGJF
South Africa aren’t in action this week, but South Africans will be glued to their television sets watching the outcomes of these games that will determine who finishes in the top two of their pools and subsequently go through to the quarters.
Let’s look at the permutations and possible match-ups in the final eight.
Pool A
New Zealand will run wild against Uruguay on Thursday night and book their place in the quarters with a bonus point win.
Exactly who will join them in the last eight is yet to be determined.
Your team for our final pool match 🖤 pic.twitter.com/TKfMuvAhSA
— All Blacks (@AllBlacks) October 3, 2023
And here it gets tricky.
France and Italy square off on Friday, and if you believe Rassie Erasmus then the Italians have a kans - apparently they know how to beat northern hemisphere teams.
So if they do shock the French, it’s goodbye Les Bleus - even if they get a losing bonus point.
Two losing bonus points would also not be enough if Italy win with a bonus point.
🇫![CDATA[]]>🇷⚡️🇮![CDATA[]]>🇹 𝗟![CDATA[]]>𝗔 𝗖![CDATA[]]>𝗢![CDATA[]]>𝗠![CDATA[]]>𝗣![CDATA[]]>𝗢 #FRAvITA
— France Rugby (@FranceRugby) October 4, 2023
Les Bleus ont rendez-vous à 21h vendredi soir à Lyon pour une qualification 𝗲![CDATA[]]>𝗻 𝗾![CDATA[]]>𝘂![CDATA[]]>𝗮![CDATA[]]>𝗿![CDATA[]]>𝘁 𝗱![CDATA[]]>𝗲 𝗳![CDATA[]]>𝗶![CDATA[]]>𝗻![CDATA[]]>𝗮![CDATA[]]>𝗹![CDATA[]]>𝗲 ! #RWC2023#UnisPourUnRêve #XVdeFrance pic.twitter.com/AatuOtidSr
If all the teams end on 15 log points, New Zealand will finish on top because of a superior points difference with Italy joining them in the playoffs because of their head-to-head win over France.
A France win - which should be the case if the world is round - will see them top the log and play the second team in Pool B and NZ in second to face the top team in Pool A.
Then again, I am a flat-earther.
My prediction for the quarters: 1 France 2 New Zealand
Pool B
Three days out! 🇫![CDATA[]]>🇷#TeamOfUs pic.twitter.com/Q9n0ENibD5
— Irish Rugby (@IrishRugby) October 4, 2023
It’s all about Ireland and Scotland at Stade France on Saturday.
And it could messy if Duhan van der Merwe and his teammates shock the world’s top team.
It’s simple; if Ireland win they top the log and South Africa finish second.
If Scotland win with neither team getting a bonus point and both end on 14, they go through because they won the head to head. In such a case SA will finish in first place.
Five points for the Scots and one for Ireland will see the former advancing, while the Iere just have to keep Scotland from scoring four tries and from opening up an eight-point win in order to advance.
There is only one scenario in which the Boks can bow out and that is if Scotland beat Ireland by more than 21 points with the latter then also getting a losing bonus point.
My prediction: 1 Ireland 2 Springboks
Pool C
Quarter-final hopes are alive for the @wallabies 💪#RWC2023 | #AUSvPOR pic.twitter.com/UO4QBhan5j
— Rugby World Cup (@rugbyworldcup) October 1, 2023
I imagine Eddie Jones having studied the lyrics of A Portuguesa this week and, dressed in an oversized Cristiano Ronaldo shirt with a glass of red wine in one hand, singing uit volle bors ahead of Sunday’s 9pm clash between Portugal and Fiji.
He’d be hoping that Os Lobos (The Wolves) can do what they could never do before - win a Rugby World Cup match while at the same time keeping their opponents from bagging a single log point.
It’s wishful thinking, but after the year he’s had, I’d allow arme Eddie to dream.
Wales, who play Georgia this week, are already in the quarters and should be joined by Fiji, who trail Australia by one point.
Portugal, though, shouldn’t be taken for complete poppe after playing to a 18-all draw with Georgia.
Stranger things have happened.
The qualifiers from this pool will face the teams from Pool D in the knockouts.
My prediction: 1 Wales 2 Fiji
Pool D
4️⃣ days to go… #JPN v #ARG
— Japan Rugby (@JRFURugby) October 4, 2023
The quarter final decider 🔥
🇯![CDATA[]]>🇵 Japan v Argentina 🇦![CDATA[]]>🇷
📆 Sunday, 8 October 20:00 JST
🏟️ Nantes, France
📡 NTV/Hulu /TVer
📡 JSports1/JSports On Demand #GoWithTheBrave | #JPNvARG pic.twitter.com/A5YMq66H2z
England have already qualified in first place from this pool, while Argentina, Japan and even Samoa still harbour hopes of joining them.
The permutations are not that complicated if there is an outright winner in the shootout between Japan and Argentina at 1pm on Sunday.
The winner will join England in the last eight.
However, should they draw things will get tricky.
World Rugby explains: “A draw could be enough to secure second place for Japan or Argentina, depending on whether one or both secure a try-bonus point and Samoa’s result against England.
“If both get try-scoring bonus points in a draw, Argentina will finish second on points difference (+46 to +18).
“If the match ends in a draw, Japan must be the only team to get a try-scoring bonus point to finish second.
“If neither get a bonus point in the draw, Samoa must beat England by 29 points and get a try-bonus point to have the best points difference of the three teams to finish second (+47).”
Nou ja. It would just be easier for one team to win the match.
My prediction: 1 England 2 Argentina