If the Rugby World Cup stats are to be believed, then Springbok captain Siya Kolisi and his teammates will have to have their bags at the ready after Sunday night’s Rugby World Cup quarterfinal against France. Hulle kom huis toe.
Yes, the game of rugby is played on grass with an oval ball and stats have absolutely no bearing on what happens between the four white lines.
But what it does is give us an indication of who’s in form, where the weaknesses in teams are, which players will be confident heading into the game - measured by their success rate in different departments - and how teams like to play.
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For example, the French enter Sunday’s game averaging 30 kicks per game, while the Springboks average only over 20.
If I’d wake you up in the middle of the night and asked you who’s more of a kicking team the Springboks or France, I bet the answer would be the world champions.
Stats, though, paint a picture that is void of emotion and perception.
So, according to the stats, what can we expect on Sunday?
Statistically, the Springboks are one of the worst teams in the last eight.
The #Springboks have arrived in Paris and they know exactly what is at stake this weekend - more here: https://t.co/AIGMPIhNZ8 💥#StrongerTogether #RWC2023 pic.twitter.com/EHWnMTJSkc
— Springboks (@Springboks) October 9, 2023
Of the eight teams in the quarters, the Springboks made “fewest carries per game (108.3), the fifth most metres (544.8), are sixth for linebreaks (6.3) and offloads (8.5), seventh for collision dominance, conceded the joint-most turnovers with Fiji (17) meaning they have the worst positive outcomes of any team (60 percent)” en so kan ons aangaan, according to the statisticians at World Rugby.
Let’s add that “their scrums had the second worst success rate (81 percent) and they were fifth for lineout success (89 percent)” to the equation.
Surely those stats paint a picture of a lot of fixes.
Compare this to France, who “have the highest collision dominance relative to their carries (48 percent)... the third-best scrum success (94 percent) and the second-best lineout (91 percent)”.
They also have the most offloads per game (11.8), and “the second-most line breaks (10.5)”.
Stats suggest that the French will come with muscle game controlled by the boot. Sound familiar?
In terms of points scored, the Boks are also heavy underdogs.
France fullback Thomas Ramos tops the scoring charts with 61 points, the best South African is Cobus Reinach in 27th place with 20 points.
Reinach’s four tries puts him ninth in the competition, with France wing Damian Penaud topping the charts with six touchdowns.
Ramos, meanwhile, also made a tournament-high 19 conversions, with SA’s best being Damian Willemse down in 18th place with five conversions.
Furthermore, France have scored more points (210) than the Boks to date (151), more tries 27 to 22, made more offloads (40 to 27), clean breaks 42 to 25.
On top of that, the Springboks also have the vocal French crowd to contend with.
Mammoth, mammoth task.
“If you want to do something great, it will never be in ideal situations” - more here: https://t.co/71HxfWUdGa 🗣#StrongerTogether #Springboks #RWC2023 pic.twitter.com/EPX2uJnxm5
— Springboks (@Springboks) October 11, 2023
Here’s the thing, though. The Boks have not thrown all their eggs into one basket in this tournament and have planned for various scenarios in a game.
The addition of Handre Pollard to the team is huge. It will give them the confidence that when it’s tight, they have a goal-kicker who can slot home the crucial kicks, while allowing Manie Libbok the freedom to play ball.
Personally, I’d play Libbok at 10 on Sunday and Pollard at 12, possibly moving Damian de Allende to 13.
What I like about this Springbok team is that they have a Plan B now and can turn on the style if needed.
For Sunday, though, it will have to be Plan A. Use Faf de Klerk’s left boot and slam the French. You can’t beat the Boks at their own game. Imitation is the best form of flattery and France have copied the Boks’ blueprint. Now it’s just up to SA to show them who the originals are.
As for the stats, SA’s stats look deurmekaar and swak because they experimented. Come Sunday we can expect whichever match 23 that will play to be much more clinical than what those stats suggest.
The #Springboks are gearing up for a massive challenge on Sunday 💪#StrongerTogether #RWC2023 pic.twitter.com/Pq3TJIdUm7
— Springboks (@Springboks) October 11, 2023
Anyway, my prediction at the start of the year was a quarterfinal exit for South Africa. I’d hate for that to happen, but to avoid it they have to play out of their skins on Sunday.
Onto the other quarterfinals and Ireland versus New Zealand could easily have been the final.
Should the Springboks get through the France game, the Ireland/ New Zealand clash has the makings of the England/ New Zealand semifinal match in 2019.
England played their final on that day to beat New Zealand and simply weren’t the same against the Boks.
Ireland, playing for their first ever semifinal place, will be difficult to beat. So too will Ardie Savea and his All Blacks teammates, who have gradually found their mojo again.
If Ireland can weather the early Kiwi storm and keep it close heading into the final 30 minutes, I’d back Johnny Sexton and his teammates for the win. While I do think New Zealand have a starting XV that can beat any team on any day, I have my doubts about their bench. And here the Irish could do damage.
The two other quarters pale in comparison to these two big teams.
New week, new goal.
— Fiji Rugby Union (@fijirugby) October 9, 2023
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England and Fiji? I don’t think the Fijians will manage to pull off another win over the English - they beat them just before the tournament kicked off.
England, though, are a different beast (like South Africa) at World Cups and I reckon they’d win this one to book their place against the winner of South Africa and France.
As for Wales and Argentina, go Los Pumas!