It’s a tale of two leaders, fighting for their political survival.
South African President Jacob Zuma faces impeachment, and Patricia de Lille could be removed as Mayor of Cape Town.
But who will lose their job?
On paper, Zuma should be first to go.
Under section 89 of the Constitution, a president can be impeached on the following grounds:
1. A serious violation of the Constitution or the law;
2. Serious misconduct; or
3. Inability to perform the functions of office.
Everyone will have an opinion on 2 and 3, so let’s focus on the first point.
The highest court in the land found that JZ had “failed to uphold, defend and respect the constitution” and ordered him to pay back the money spent on Nkandla.
That same court then ruled that Parliament had failed to hold Zuma accountable for using public money for private home upgrades.
A high court also ordered the prez to set up a commission of enquiry into state capture - which he finally did this week.
Then there’s the small matter of 783 corruption charges, which he has yet to be tried on.
Add up all of these and you already have a strong case.
Impeachment is easier said than done, though, as it would require a two thirds majority vote in the National Assembly.
With Zuma’s track record with votes of no confidence in Parliament - he’s beaten eight so far - the smart money is on No.1 holding on.
It’s likely he’ll survive Parliament. The question is: will he survive his own party’s new leadership?
The ANC is desperate to clean up house and prove that they are serious about combating corruption.
They have to, if they are to have a strong showing at next year’s elections.
It’s widely believed Zuma and his corruption scandals are the reason the ruling party’s grip on power slipped from 62% in the 2014 general elections to 54% in the 2016 municipal polls.
So Zuma has to go.
It’s a catch-22 for Cyril Ramaphosa and the new leadership.
IT'S A CATCH-22: ANC President Cyril Ramaphosa
Oust JZ, sending out a clear message about corruption - and you literally split the party in two, right down the middle, from the Top 6 to the NEC, right down to the branches.
The party would be at war with itself - and further dent its prospects for 2019.
Already it looks like the party leadership will keep the peace and retain Zuma, whose exit was expected to be discussed at an ANC NEC meeting on Wednesday.
It didn’t happen.
Such is the power and influence of the Zulu “king”.
If De Lille enjoyed half this much support in her own party, she wouldn’t be in the predicament she’s in.
Compared to the president, her alleged rap sheet looks like spek en boontjies.
De Lille is currently being investigated by the City Council for maladministration and covering up corrupt deals.
This after the executive director in her own office, Craig Kesson, accused her of asking to make a report about a R43 million loss on a MyCiTi tender “go away”.
And threatening a senior official who tried to report alleged tender irregularities.
Aunty Pat is also being investigated by her party bosses Mmusi Maimane and parliamentary whip John Steenhuisen, for this, as well as her public feud with Mayco member JP Smith.
PROBE: Mmusi Maimane
They asked De Lille to give reasons why she should not step down.
The DA’s Cape Metro executive went one further by unanimously recommending she be sacked, saying De Lille had lost the confidence of their members.
Basically, Aunty Pat has no friends left in the DA.
It’s not like she can call on the support of Premier Helen Zille either. That romance soured a while ago.
Of course, De Lille can always point to her excellent record at the polls - winning a record 66% of the Western Cape vote in 2016.
A popular choice for years, the love seems to have dried up with De Lille’s handling of the drought crisis and her proposed “drought levy”.
She won’t go down without a legal fight but, eish, it’s hard to see the mayor surviving all of this.
Come Sunday, you can expect the DA Federal Executive to say: Sorry, Aunty Pat, you are the weakest link. Goodbye.