From creating 10 million jobs
to building an Islamic welfare state and restoring Pakistan's
tattered image abroad, new premier Imran Khan is facing a
problem of his own making: runaway expectations raised by his
lofty rhetoric.
A cricket legend and firebrand nationalist who is
hero-worshipped by supporters, Khan swept to power in last
month's election on a populist platform vowing to root out
corruption among a venal elite and lift people out of poverty.
But he inherits control of a volatile nation facing mounting
problems at home and abroad, including a looming economic crisis
and a fracture with historic ally the United States over
Pakistan's alleged links to militants. Ties are also fraught
with neighbours Afghanistan and nuclear-armed rival India.
Opponents in parliament talk of forming a grand coalition
against Khan, dubbing him a "puppet" and accusing him of
entering into a Faustian Pact with the powerful military, which
has a history of ousting prime ministers and clashing with
civilian governments over control of foreign policy.
Khan denies all accusations that the military covertly
helped him win the election.
And in his victory speech, Khan offered an olive branch to
India and called for mutually beneficial ties with the United
States.
Whether Khan can become the first Pakistani prime minister
to complete a full five-year term in office will depend on his
relationship with influential generals, analysts say.
If his ideas on foreign policy differ from theirs, analysts
say Khan would suffer a similar fate to other civilian leaders
who have failed to see out their term.
"Then his future will be the same as anybody else's,"
political commentator Aamer Ahmed Khan said.
Forced to rely on smaller parties for a razor-thin majority
in parliament, and with the opposition controlling the Senate,
Khan's coalition government could struggle to push through
legislation without major compromises. An increasingly assertive
judiciary could also hold it back.
Yet the mood in the country is one of unbridled optimism,
especially among Khan's young supporters, who believe he can
build a corruption-free and prosperous "New Pakistan" for the
country's 208 million people.
"His biggest challenge is managing expectations among his
followers and voters because he's almost promised them the
moon," said Raza Ahmad Rumi, the editor of Pakistan's Daily
Timesnewspaper.
During Independence Day celebrations this week, when
flag-waving Pakistanis flooded the streets of Islamabad, many
voiced confidence that Khan would deliver on promises to build
world class hospitals and improve education in a nation where
the illiteracy rate hovers above 40 percent.
"I have moved my daughter (from a private) to a government
school, because we are confident that Pakistan is going to
change," said Sheikh Farhaj, 40, who volunteered for Khan's
Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) party during the elections.
Others were delighted Khan has broken the decades-long
dominance of the two dynastic powerhouses, the outgoing Pakistan
Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) party of jailed former premier Nawaz
Sharif and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) of the Bhutto
family.
"We have great expectations from Imran Khan," said Shah
Sultan, 38, a roadside flag seller. "We are lower class people
and I voted from Khan because what the politicians have done to
our country. They have left it with nothing."
But Khan's campaign pledges are likely to be checked by a
worsening economic outlook, analysts say, especially his vow to
build a welfare state.
The central bank has devalued the rupee four times since
December, but the current account deficit is still carrying the
currency towards a crisis, while the fiscal deficit has
ballooned to 6.8 percent of GDP.
Economic growth is running at nearly 6 percent, but given
the unsustainability of these deficits it is easy to predict
Pakistan's growth is heading for a fall.
Khan's government must urgently decide whether to request
more loans from China, deepening Islamabad's economic reliance
on its neighbour, or ask the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
for what would be its 15th bailout since 1980.
Both lenders are likely to ask for more fiscal discipline,
requiring drastic spending cuts.
Shafqat Mahmood, Khan's new education minister, said the
economic woes pose a major problem but the party is determined
to deliver a welfare system and enact badly-needed reforms.
"Everyone in the party realises we will have to work
overtime to meet these huge expectations," Mahmood said.
Mahmood said Khan's image as a politician untainted by
corruption could boost faith in the government and convince more
people to file taxes in a nation where less than 1 percent of
the population pays income tax.
Khan has touted his "100 Day Plan" but many of the reforms
PTI is proposing, from turning around loss-making state-run
enterprises to reforming the tax collection bureau, will take
far longer to accomplish.
Ending government corruption outright, or repatriating
plundered wealth, is also unlikely.
"(Khan's supporters) have a simplistic idea that if there is
a clean man on top, the entire machinery becomes clean. That's
never the case anywhere in the world," said Rumi.